Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Belief and Science in Public School Reform


Opinion leaders, clerics, moralists, participants in public affairs who wish to transcend popular opinion to get closer to the true nature of problems and solutions, must have sources of objective knowledge about issues. Writers such as Thomas Friedman do not serve this need since their concerns are of not driven by a serious concern about matters public policy that would lead them into scientific understanding. They seem to have no interest in going beyond what is found in the popular media. It seems apparent that the reason is that they intend on achieving popular appeal, the criterion for the popular press, rather than achieving a scientific understanding. They are not interested in conducting serious inquiry into problems and causes.

Writers, like politicians—even though they may express interesting and appealing thought but who lack a scientific grounding—offer little of substance that can be of interest or value to the serious analyst. Such popular expressions “sell” to certain subgroups of society and may be fun to read but they are not of value if one is to be serious about investigating problems with precision and explicating causes with coherence. That understanding comes from science, not the popular press. We can see in Thomas Friedman an example of writing popular in the press. Let’s look at one of his opinion pieces, “Can’t We Do Better?”

From the PISA assessment results, Thomas Friedman points out how poorly U.S. 15-year-olds are doing compared to students from other countries. His opinion: “it wasn’t pretty.” Since we are “now in an era in which globalization and the information technology revolution have merged to drastically shrink what was the basis of our middle class for so many years, the “high-wage, middle-skilled” job,” he believes it important to do better. Who couldn’t agree? And among those who have looked seriously at public education in the last 3 decades who has disagreed that participation in the increasingly complex technological society requires an intellectual development not formerly required for working in factories? And who would not agree that more money has had no effect, that per pupil spending has risen dramatically and performance indicators have remained essentially flat? 

So if that is the situation, what exactly does he see as the problem and what exactly is the cause?
As to the problem, how does Friedman define it? He speaks of students’ motivation and ownership of learning. Is he saying it lies with the consumer of public education, the children?

He speaks of professional autonomy and development time for teachers. Does the problem lie with the provider of public education?

He speaks of Republicans who block investments in education programs. Does it lie with lack of money?

He speaks of the threatening long-term entitlement spending. Does it lie with lack of money?

He speaks of blocking reforms giving teachers ownership and accountability. Does it lie with teacher unions? The public school system?

Although societal factors are another cause often mentioned, he omits mention of poverty, bad family background, sub cultures that de-value education, the lure of employment, baby making attractions, low graduation rates. Does the cause lie with the proportion of rotten kids schools must work with?

As to solutions, Thomas Friedman touches on all these factors but since he is much too vague and overly general in defining precisely what the problem is much less the causes, he cannot offer anything other than solutions that are also weak, broad, vague solutions. His solutions aren’t specifics of design but largely hopes and dreams; they are not the powerful methods of redesign of public schooling that we need if we are to change the persistent and startlingly poor results of test scores (if such test scores are even the problem).

Scientific research necessarily produces a certain power of specificity in understanding the nature and cause of things since it only advances by careful specification and delimitation of a problem. Poorly stated, vague problems can’t be objectively investigated. In defining a problem scientist do not say, “Oh, some living things are struggling to survive.” They speak precisely of a particular sub-species in a well-defined region of Wyoming that is measured over time to reveal the rate of decline. They do not speculate. They do the work of abstracting the particular factor causing the decline—a disease, a property rights conflict with farmers’ sheep, declining habitat, or whatever and use methods fitted to the problem to verify it. Furthermore, the generalities of science are not global, unanalyzed notions but wholes that are composed of many differentiated, precise specifics. They don’t tend toward simple empirical generalizations like 42% are Democratic and 38% Republican, but tend toward theoretic generalizations that transcend empirical facts, such as E=mc2. Theoretic explanations do not come from empirical data.

Science is comparative, puts things into an historic framework, considers all possible interpretations and theories. Then fashions precise methods by which the one true solution can be verified. Science does not find an interesting finding reported from a researcher from which an opinion piece can be written. It conducts a review of all the literature before hypothesizing possible solutions which must be investigated. With such specificity and verification of methods and causal explanations, biological or social engineers can then carefully design, test, re-design interventions over time. There is no one-shot big ticket solution from a blue ribbon committee, only step-by-step marginal improvements gradually making things better over time. We see little of this in public education. Instead we get data-free speculation and grand reforms with little respect for the history of education and its gradual, marginal changes over time. Without considerably more definitional power as to problems and causal analysis, that is, science, solutions are little more than subjective pronouncements that easily lapse into ideological assertions. But speculation is popular, accepted, and that perhaps is why education reform is such a booming business for reformers.

So there is actually not just one but two problems. The one problem addressed by Friedman is that of the poor performance of U.S. students. But the secondary one is the problem of why public education reform is dominated by data free analysis and speculation by writers like Friedman. The scientific problem here is to precisely describe the seeral levels of scholarship and understanding of public systems and then investigate the causes of the development of these understanding, or in this case of public education, the lack of development that seem so widespread. How exactly do we explain why so many think they are expert in public education matters and worthy of publication in the national press and why so many believe in these writers? Why are their opinions popular? Should we speculate and guess or just as with the first problem of student development, should we seek turn the problem into a scientific one by seeking some scientific specificity as to the definition of this secondary problem and the pursue its causes. It means coupling precision with objective methods of investigation so as to confirm which of possible hypothetical deductive explanations for Friedman’s and others’ thinking about our public education system. Science moves us step-by-step toward the truth. Ideology expresses belief, and it blocks advancement.

People may well disagree with a framework which sets belief and speculation in opposition to science. But even this hypothetical framework must transcend speculation and belief by withlding judgment until it is submitted to scientific investigation. Scientifically we can investigate whether a government system of schools can ever be reformed so as to be high performing and non-discriminatory for all subgroups, and scientifically and regardless of the answer to the first question of whether government systems can be made to work well, we can scientifically investigate the nature of people’s beliefs about public schools and the differences among people that appear at each stage in the development of their thought about public systems.

One thing is clear. Public school systems will continue to be static organizations in their system design and performance until change is no longer based on policies of popular speculation, belief, and ideology. Actual development of a better system design can only happen when leaders reject the kind of thinking and writing a Thomas Friedman produces and turn to science. Leaders must leave the popular press to the citizens and draw their understanding and wisdom from science.